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Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts 2018 Q1

Economic growth to remain modest with NI economy forecast to grow by 1.0% in 2018

GVA in Northern Ireland is forecast to grow by 1.0% in 2018, lower than the 1.6% growth in real GDP expected in the UK. Local consumer spending growth is projected to pick up slightly as the squeeze on spending power gradually eases, but the expected 0.7% increase in 2018 is still relatively modest. Brexit-related uncertainty is likely to continue to weigh on business investment. But the strength of the global economy should provide some support to exporting businesses.

Total employee jobs growth is expected to slow over the next two years, falling from 1.6% in 2017 to 0.4% in 2018 and 0.2% in 2019.

Employment growth is projected to be fastest in the information & communication, construction and administrative & support services sectors in 2018. The largest contraction is projected to be in the public administration & defence sector.

Read the 2018 Q1 Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts report here












Conor Lambe, Economist at Danske Bank, summarises the key findings from the report in this short video